- Country : Singapore
- Index : Straits Times Index (STI)
- Sector : Healthcare
- Ticker : SGX.BSL ( Raffles Medical Group Ltd )
Raffles Medical Group Elliott Wave Analysis ( Monthly Chart)
Let’s begin our overview of Raffles Medical Group Elliott Wave Analysis on the longer-term monthly charts.
Raffles Medical Group (RMG) share price seemingly completed its impulsive 5-way move on the 23rd of July 2015.
This comes in the form of a 1-2-3-4-5 rally in white.
Most Elliott Wave analysts should have no qualms agreeing on this wave count.
Just for the record, RMG reached an all-time high (ATH) of around $1.53.
The ATH will be labeled as our Cycle Wave ((I)) in orange.
Unfortunately, since then, it has been in a downward spiral.
From a fundamentally perspective, Raffles Medial Singapore’s share price has probably been dragged down by its current expansion plans in China.
The high operating costs of its China operations in Chongqing has seemingly put a damper on its share price going forward.
Deciphering The Larger Corrective Structure
I have 2 alternative lines of thought on how this larger corrective structure for wave ((2)) in orange might play out.
But from a Fibonacci perspective, this larger corrective structure has already retraced to around the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement zone of the last move up.
Although the 50% is not technically a Fibonacci level.
It is still considered a critical level where prices might show a knee jerk reaction.
Primary View ( Optimistic )
My initial and predominant view on how this corrective phase is unfolding remains unchanged despite the current COVID-19 intervention.
From a broader perspective, I am still inclined to believe that wave ((II)) in orange has duly completed on the 23rd of March 2020.
And that the 2nd wave unfolded in a Double-Combo W-X-Y corrective structure in white.
If you look deeper, the first leg W in white has also unfolded internally in a 3 way (W)-(X)-(Y) in blue.
Similarly, the middle leg X in white has also unfolded internally in a 3 way (W)-(X)-(Y) in blue.
While the last leg Y in white unfolded more aggressively in an (A)-(B)-(C) in blue with the (C) leg drop hasten by the COVID-19 pandemic.
And from a Fibonacci perspective, the Y leg in white is almost at the 100% Fibonacci extension of the initial W leg in white.
This confluence of market structure as well as Fibonacci ratios is primarily the reason why I am more inclined to believe that the 2nd wave correction has reached its due course.
Alternative View ( Pessimistic )
Now, if you look at the Raffles Medical Group Elliott Wave Analysis from a different angle, you might find this possibility.
The current pessimistic view takes the form of a 5-wave (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) in blue.
This 5 leg sequence will subsequently form the A-leg in of the even larger A-B-C Corrective structure in white.
Perhaps signifying a slight respite rally in prices in the form of a B-leg in white.
And followed by a further decline in prices for the last C-leg in white to complete the larger A-B-C correction in white.
No matter how confident you might be or how similar situations have panned out in the past.
The markets can sometimes find a way to throw a curveball right smack in our faces.
That is why having an alternative view is imperative to any Elliot Wave traders’ long term success.
Although I am more inclined towards my primary and more optimistic view.
I have to admit that anything can happen as the financial markets are so volatile of late.
Despite news that vaccines are soon to be available for the masses, its effectiveness is still a doubt.
The possibility of an even more massive 2nd or 3rd wave of infections although remote is still a possibility.
Unless very ill, most might avoid visiting medical and hospital establishments totally in view of catching the virus there.
From the operations of Raffles Medical Group going forward, chronic patients are likely to postpone their non-critical surgeries until the dust has settled.
And this is likely to affect Raffles Medical Group’s operating cash flow going forward.
Lastly, do your own due diligence before forking out any hard-earned money for investments in these volatile times.
Trade safe and prosper.
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